NFL Handicapping
A common mistake most bettors make when handicapping college and
NFL football is the lack of versatility in their handicapping methods.
Some use power ratings, some use gut and feel, and others may use
a computer program. Any of these methods alone often are not enough
to overcome the bookmakers sharp opinion on a football game. We
feel that by combining a little of each method after you have established
your current power rated number can stick a few more winners in
your pocket come seasons end. The next time you sit down and start
football handicapping the weeks College and NFL games keep this
page for reference. The first one we are going to cover refers to
both college and pro football but lets call it a part of NFL handicapping
since the example used is 2 pro football teams.
There are 3 different types of contributing factors that will most
likely decide a football contest. The one we are going to cover
today is the abstract factors. These are things that are not related
to the talent each team brings to the field of play. Some examples
would be weather, unexpected injuries during the contest, bad calls
by the officials, crowd noise, bad bounces, and one in a million
type plays. With the exception of weather, these are factors that
you cannot foresee or predict, and even the weather is unpredictable
at times.
Here is a situation from the pros involving abstractual football
handicapping. You have Cleveland +13 over Cincinnati. You felt this
was a good spot for the Browns as they normally play a tight game
with the Bengals. Throughout the game it is tight and with 2 minutes
left Cincinnati scores a TD to take a 16-9 lead. The Browns drive
down to the Bengal 5 yard line, and on the next play Cincinnati
picks off the Cleveland QB and runs it back for a touchdown. This
would be a great example of an abstract situation having the right
side and having the game pegged as a close one but still losing
money because of an atypical play.
You have no control over the abstract things that happen in games,
so it really doesn’t play a big role in your own football
handicapping. The only thing you can do is hope that over the course
of the season, these abstract factors even themselves out for and
against you. The best piece of advice we can offer in this article
is don’t let the abstract factor get you down or effect you
for the next weeks slate of games.
Lets move onto another factor experts use in College
football handicapping.
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