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NFL Handicapping

A common mistake most bettors make when handicapping college and NFL football is the lack of versatility in their handicapping methods. Some use power ratings, some use gut and feel, and others may use a computer program. Any of these methods alone often are not enough to overcome the bookmakers sharp opinion on a football game. We feel that by combining a little of each method after you have established your current power rated number can stick a few more winners in your pocket come seasons end. The next time you sit down and start football handicapping the weeks College and NFL games keep this page for reference. The first one we are going to cover refers to both college and pro football but lets call it a part of NFL handicapping since the example used is 2 pro football teams.

There are 3 different types of contributing factors that will most likely decide a football contest. The one we are going to cover today is the abstract factors. These are things that are not related to the talent each team brings to the field of play. Some examples would be weather, unexpected injuries during the contest, bad calls by the officials, crowd noise, bad bounces, and one in a million type plays. With the exception of weather, these are factors that you cannot foresee or predict, and even the weather is unpredictable at times.

Here is a situation from the pros involving abstractual football handicapping. You have Cleveland +13 over Cincinnati. You felt this was a good spot for the Browns as they normally play a tight game with the Bengals. Throughout the game it is tight and with 2 minutes left Cincinnati scores a TD to take a 16-9 lead. The Browns drive down to the Bengal 5 yard line, and on the next play Cincinnati picks off the Cleveland QB and runs it back for a touchdown. This would be a great example of an abstract situation having the right side and having the game pegged as a close one but still losing money because of an atypical play.

You have no control over the abstract things that happen in games, so it really doesn’t play a big role in your own football handicapping. The only thing you can do is hope that over the course of the season, these abstract factors even themselves out for and against you. The best piece of advice we can offer in this article is don’t let the abstract factor get you down or effect you for the next weeks slate of games.

Lets move onto another factor experts use in College football handicapping.


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